A year ago, banks were saying they don't want to finance coal mine development any longer.
European countries were closing down coal power plants.
It looked like there was little interest in the commodity going forward.
But now the price of coal is booming.
In October last year a ton of export coal sold for around $90.
Today it sells between $300 and $400!
That's a big change…
... ››› more
In our QA mailbox this past week...
Q. “Hi Timon, I refer to the below track record…
"I am a bit confused as I believe I am doing something wrong.
My portfolio value is R85,000 and my figures for the above trades have the same results as a portfolio value with R5,000.
Is this possible to achieve such results with a portfolio value of R5,000 and risk 2% at the same time? Thank you…”
... ››› more
Here's a bit of a warning.
Have you seen the petrol price hikes lately?
Probably not yet, but you will.
In America the prices of petrol and diesel shot up to the highest level in over 14 years.
Petrol went to $1.23 per litre or $4.69 per gallon.
Diesel rocketed to $1.35 per litre of $5.11 per gallon.
And as you know, what happens in America, has a ripple effect in South Africa ... ››› more
There's one reason you're subscribed to Trading Tips.
You want to make a living trading the financial markets with ease.
But to achieve this, you need to have a plan to turn your financial dreams and visions into a reality.
Step #1 was to join Trading Tips.
Step #2: is to join my weekly trading alerts and updates service through Red Hot Storm Trader.
But do you know what step 3 is?
... ››› more
The war in Ukraine threatens further disruptions to already stretched supply chains.
Whilst Ukraine and Russia are small compared to the likes of the US, China and Germany, they are essential suppliers of many raw materials crucial to supply chains down the line.
So exactly which of these commodities will be hardest hit? And does that pose opportunity? Three commodities hit by the Ukraine cr... ››› more
The petrol price in South Africa is breaking the R20 a litre level.
December 2020 it sold for R14.26 a litre. That's an increase of 41.6%
Sure - the 2020 level for petrol prices was a low base. Covid reduced demand and the oil price was really low.
But the huge increases we're seeing now are hurting - and they'll definitely affect business as well.
-------------------------------------------... ››› more
This month is a major one for South Africa…
On 1 November we had the local municipal vote where we saw negative sentiment for both the rand and bonds.
In fact, not only did the the rand fall over 1.1% versus the dollar, the nation's local-currency debt also dropped 1.2% in dollar terms.
This weaker rand helped boost resources share prices, as our resources are exported in US dollars.... ››› more
I believe there is one commodity that can be seen as an indicator for a recovering world economy.
Think about it…
We need oil to run just about anything nowadays.
We need oil for transport, for electricity and to run massive operations.
Last year, I was extremely pessimistic and expected the price of oil to drop to $30. Which it did… And this year, my analysi... ››› more
The JSE ALSI is at it again!
As of last week, it broke through its side-ways range since January and hit an all-time high.
There were three main reasons for this.
First, over the last month, we've seen South Africa's COVID-19 cases drop from 14,000 to 1,200 average cases per day.
So President Cyril Ramaphosa, gave us the greatest economic giftand dropped the restrictions from Level 3... ››› more
If you reading Trading Tips in 2020, you'll know I was a big seller of Brent Crude throughout the year.
In the last oil article, I made a wild prediction that Brent Crude oil was heading to $30.
If you missed it, you can catch up here…
"Why oil dropping below $40 is a major threat to the global economy"
And in just a few weeks, the price crashed down not only to... ››› more
Q. "Hi Timon, I see Sasol was another big gainer that helped drive the JSE last week.
Do you have any information on what drove up the price and if you'll be sending a trade with Red Hot Storm Trader?"
A. Thank you Gerhardt!
Yes, we saw Sasol rise over 3.6% last week. Well spotted!
In fact, before we get to Sasol, it’s important to note we saw the oil pric... ››› more
Welcome to the first prediction article for the year.
And what better way to start, than to see where our currency is heading.
Now if you've been following my rand predictions from last year, you'd know that I expected the rand to strengthen from R16.50 down to R15.00 against the US dollar.
If you missed the article, you can catch up here...
America is going to hell - And the S... ››› more
Q. “Timon I've been a trader for the last three years following your tips and strategy. My portfolio is up but only a tiny amount. Could you give me some signs to see if I'm on my way to trading success?”
A. By the sounds of it Grant, it looks like you’re well on your way to becoming a great trader.
I do have a quick three-point check list that I use to see if a trader... ››› more
I feel like I'm in a dream.
In the span of two weeks we've have good news overflow the markets.
We had Joe Biden win the elections. Then a few days later, two vaccines come out to end the Covid-19 pandemic.
And both local and global markets have rallied over 4% in that time.
And when I went to my charts, I saw a commodity that is ready for an 18% rally.
I'm talki... ››› more
To think, in 2011, Brent Crude was at $120 barrel. And today is barely hanging onto $40.
This was all thanks to the Corona-crisis.
In fact, we are now seeing a resurgence in Europe with new restrictions and lockdowns.
And just look at who's contracted the virus.
• President Donald Trump and the first lady
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Brazil's Jair Bolsnaro
• ... ››› more
Load shedding has been a headache for us all.
If you hoped it would end thanks to maintenance Eskom did during lockdown - you were disappointed. As our economy has been opening up we've sporadically had load shedding, with a turn very close to the highest amount of reduced supply in SA's history.
It's become clear that the solution to this problem likely won't come from Eskom alone…
... ››› more
Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic there was a ‘nerdy' accounting joke doing the rounds saying that soon we'd see EBITDAC - Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and corona.
While there's no ‘official' accounting term like that - companies results do show the effects, the pandemic has had on them. And many are opting to call it ‘once-off expenses.
Suddenly the ner... ››› more
For more than a decade now, we've been hearing about the renewable energy trend.
South Africa has had three rounds of tendering and construction builds for both solar and wind energy plants- but due to political reasons the fourth round of builds was stopped five years ago…
Then two years ago the renewable energy programme was restarted, and by end 2019 around 8% of all of South Africa's... ››› more
On Monday, while I was doing my weekly market analysis, I saw something I've never seen before.
For the first time in history, the US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices crashed below zero.
At first, I thought this was just a glitch on my trading platform. But then, just minutes later, it was the breaking news event of the day.
When I did the research, I realised that the demand f... ››› more
On 3 February 2020, I sent out an article:
WARNING: The deadliest threat to the JSE
At the time the JSE All Share Index was trading at 55,000…
I predicted that the index would drop to 50,405 in a couple of weeks…
Did you miss ANOTHER triple-digit gain this last week?
Those canny Pickpocket Traders didn’t - thi... ››› more
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