I hope you are safe today. Amidst the unprecedented looting in KZN and Gauteng there are glimmers of hope as communities come together to fight the violence.
But once the fires stop, and the rubble is cleared, which businesses will be hardest hit - and which ones will need the longest time to recover fully?
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It's a year since 2020's hard lockdown ended.
We're back in level 4 today.
But life has changed a lot. We've adapted to the pandemic and its effects on our lives and businesses.
So, what's the state of the South African economy today, and how does it affect your investments?
How to Grow a Multi-Million Rand Retirement
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On 20 May 2021 the SA Reserve Bank had its bimonthly monetary policy meeting.
The bank kept interest rates flat - at what is basically an all-time low for South Africans…
In its announcement the bank governor, Lestja Kganyago said “Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable future. In this uncertain environment, policy decisions will continue ... ››› more
Over the last six months the rand has been an absolute star compared to other emerging currencies.
While the rand has been strengthening to under R14.50, I can't say much about the other emerging currencies.
The Brazilian Real has weakened -8% to the US dollar.
The Rouble has dropped over 4%
And the Turkish and Argentine currencies have weakened over 10%.
The rand ... ››› more
Q. “Hi Timon, it's been a tough two months trading, with this sideways market.
Right now, I'm worried because I'm down 15% of my portfolio.
It's entirely my fault as I let my trades run down without a stop loss.
Do you possibly have a calculation that I can use to see how much I need to recover to get my portfolio back to what it was?”
A. Hi Andrew, yes it is most defin... ››› more
On 8 September South Africa's GDP figures for the second quarter of 2020 was released.
Our economy shrank by 51% annualised in the three months between April and June 2020.
This has put us into the longest recession in the past 28 years.
Sectors like mining fell 73.1%, manufacturing fell 74.9% and construction shrank by 76.6%.
This is bad.
But even though it was just released, i... ››› more
On 24 February 2020, I sent out an article:
Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster
At the time the South African rand was trading at R14.20.
I predicted that the USD/ZAR would move to the first target at R16.00 within a couple of weeks…
This was due to the following factors at the time…
• The Coronavirus was declared by the WHO as a global health emergency. ... ››› more
March will be known as the worst month of all-time for the South African rand.
With the ongoing lockdown, the increasing rate of COVID-19 cases, the crumbling economy, and the downgrading from Moody's - It's just been bad news after bad news for SA.
And what happened last week?
Well we saw the South African rand hit record lows passing through the R19.00 mark against the US dollar.
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It's enough to make you sick.
Because that, my friend, is not the price of a loaf of bread these days.
Or even the cost of a litre of petrol.
It's how much you would have to cough up to buy a single dollar on Monday morning.
Shocked? I was too, when three days ago the ZAR touched its worst level ever!
And the awful reality is, it's not about to rally back to R14.00... ››› more
Q. “I have a strange question and I don't know if you can help me…
On the one side I have your MATI Trader System which I follow and take trades around twice a week.
On the other side, I have this incredible desire where I would also like to take a few trades based on different market events that present themselves in a day…
Do you have any suggestions on how I can compromise bet... ››› more
Sometimes taking a contrarian view of a market or investment, can pay off big time…
One of my all-time favourite investors, Benjamin Graham, proved this nearly 100 years - during the Great Depression.
When stocks crashed nearly 70%, Benjamin Graham didn't give up and avoid the stock market.
In fact, he saw this as a perfect opportunity to make money by pinpointing bargain stocks from... ››› more
The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
While it may have been just another ordinary Thursday afternoon to you and me, for eight South Africans sitting around a table in a small boardroom in Pretoria, things looked very different.
These eight people held the fate of the country in their hands.
Call things right, and they may just put SA's ailing economy back on track. Call things wrong, and they could decimate the rand, stifle g... ››› more
Q. “Hi Timon, I read the weekly article where you expect the JSE ALSI40 to rally.
My question is, if Moody's does eventually decide to downgrade South Africa to junk what would happen and when is the next grading?”
A. The next possible downgrading for South Africa would happen as soon as March, if South Africa fails to come up with a plan with “Credible debt-stabilisation”.
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Last Friday, ratings agency Moodys dropped their outlook for SA debt from stable to negative. This means within the next 6 to 24 months it's likely we'll see the last of the three major ratings agencies cut our government debt rating to junk.
As an economist, I am now all but certain the downgrade will happen. SA will become a junk status borrower.
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It's finals time!
The 2019 Rugby World Cup is almost at an end but there are still two opportunities for us to profit!
Third and fourth place will be decided on Friday between the defending champions and Wales.
While South Africa look to take on England on Saturday, in what will be considered the most important game of the tournament.
Will South Africa stun the world and li... ››› more
The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month.
And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow.
There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK.
These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD.
Look at t... ››› more
The latest release from StatsSA showed that South Africa's economy grew 3.1% for the second quarter of 2019.
This was better than the 2.5% expected by most economists, and it's a good sign for South African's who were worried about recession hitting.
Unfortunately, this growth doesn't necessarily mean our economy is growing again…
With first quarter GDP shrinking 3.2%, 3.1% growth do... ››› more
The rand has collapsed over the last two weeks. It moved from below R13,90/$ to worse than R15,30/$. That's more than 10% weaker in a fortnight. Obviously, many of you are worried you've lost your chance to get money out of SA at a reasonable exchange rate.
The question on everyone's mind: Should you get out now or wait for a better level?
The only way to answer this question is to look f... ››› more
Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
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