For years, many in the West have admired the ability of the Chinese Government to push through policies that would never fly in a democratic country. This has allowed them to build structures like the Three Gorges Dam.
This hydroelectric project is the world's largest power station and provides about 10% of the country's electricity. But it also required the relocation of over 1 million people.... ››› more
There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term.
Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon.
Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
US bond markets recently went into inversion. This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates.
And what this can mean is a recession is around the corner. In this case, markets are anticipating a recession sometime in the next 6 to 24 months.
But, even if you don't look at such a “technical” indicator, it should be clear the risk of recession is high.
T... ››› more
In the modern age things always seem to happen quickly.
A few weeks ago, I explained how the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the associated sanctions could potentially lead to a shift in world order. It seems this is happening far more quickly than I expected.
We have now seen firm commitments from European countries to massively increase their defence spending. We've also seen tangible ... ››› more
The most important news is often the easiest to miss.
Why?
Because for a story to be truly important, it usually needs to be about something that is both long lasting and/or has exponential characteristics.
Most of what really affects your life is long-term exponential trends.
A terrorist attack using aeroplanes may make for a spectacular news story, but the long-term improvement ... ››› more
I have been picking structured products for several years now and rarely have I seen a product as good as the one I've found this month.
Tell me where you've ever heard of an investment that:
Has a 100% capital guarantee,
Delivers 400% of UNCAPPED index performance,
Offers a guaranteed 12% tax-rate on your final return,
Is backed by an A-rated international bank, ... ››› more
Q. “Hi Timon, it's been a tough two months trading, with this sideways market.
Right now, I'm worried because I'm down 15% of my portfolio.
It's entirely my fault as I let my trades run down without a stop loss.
Do you possibly have a calculation that I can use to see how much I need to recover to get my portfolio back to what it was?”
A. Hi Andrew, yes it is most defin... ››› more
Some big-name companies announced stock splits and today is an important day for investors.
Apple (APPL) shares split four for one on Friday close. This means it will start trading today at 25% of its closing price of $499.23 on Friday. This is the fifth time its split in 33 years. If Apple never did these share splits, 1 share would be changing hands at almost $29,000, from an IPO price of $2... ››› more
If you look closely at any US Dollar note, you'll see In God We Trust, this has been America's motto since 1956. It replaced its unification slogan of E Pluribus, Unum from 1776.
But in America, there's a second motto and that's In Gold We Trust. Gold (and precious metal) coins have been selling at a significant premium since the March lows.
Gold has been on a tear since the coronavirus low ... ››› more
It's very hard to make sense of markets right now.
On the one hand, it's crystal clear the economy is in a mess. Unemployment is even higher than the worst of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The damage done by lockdowns cannot be easily undone.
On the other hand, governments have pumped unprecedented amounts of money into the system and the market seems to be on an unstoppable rise. J... ››› more
Many investors rush for the exit at the same time, causing a whip-saw effect in asset prices.
The Rand is particularly vulnerable to this as one of the major currencies.
Emerging market (EM) investors can use it as a proxy for less liquid EM currencies, and use it to hedge as it has the benefit of straddling trading hours in parts of Asia and America.
There are two ways for you to get ... ››› more
This week we reveal the second last theme in our 6-part series set to perform in the new economic reality, which will evolve as global economies open and start recovering post Covid 19 lockdowns.
Part 5 - Precious Metals:
Precious metals provide diversification that protects your portfolio in bad times. But can also benefit in the good times. Investing in the physical... ››› more
Central banks have vowed to do what ever it takes to ignite economic growth.
Growth is the only thing that will address the Covid-19 unemployment crisis facing the world.
That means there will be a lot of cheap and seemingly “free” money thrown at this problem.
We have several central bankers talking this week and our own monetary policy committee is due to make an interest rate an... ››› more
Investing in the stock market today with 100% downside protection sounds too good to be true.
That's because for every positive headline you read there are 4 negative ones signaling a strong pull back in the weeks and months ahead.
And the recovery, post coronavirus lockdown is expected to be slow.
But investors in the latest “risk-free” structured product need not worry what happe... ››› more
Yesterday marked the worst day for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis. This is on the back of the collapse in oil prices, down over 30% at one point, as Saudi Arabia notified its clients that it will sell oil at reduced prices from 1 April 2020. This is to protect its market share while demand is low.
This is effectively the second black swan to hit the market after the corona viru... ››› more
Last week was a scary time for most investors as global markets racked up new records for the fastest 10% pullback in history. The worst weekly decline for the American indices since the 2008 financial crisis. And, the biggest single day decline for most markets as the bottom fell out of the market.
These concerns are over the impact to global growth from the shut down and restrictions in Chi... ››› more
Yesterday saw markets react decisively to the risk of COVID-19 to global growth. With most markets pulling back over 3%. This is due to an acceleration of new infections outside of China. It has hit Europe as Italy reports the 7th death and puts the town of Cologna on lock down, with others in the Lombardy region of northern Italy (a manufacturing hub) on unofficial lockdown.
The cause for ala... ››› more
Many analysts have predicted 2020 will be a choppy year for investors, but NO ONE could have anticipated a threat like the Coronavirus. And, although many of you have likely heard of the disease, I believe most people are yet to understand its implications.
According to most estimates, this appears to be a very infectious sickness (twice as high as a normal flu) with a moderate death rate (l... ››› more
The next two-and-a-bit weeks marks the end of the tax year. It's an important time for retirement and tax planning for most people and often neglected or left too late.
There are three things you must do before 28 February 2020...
________________________________________
THREE that could SOAR: Get my urgent penny stock plays for 2020
Read my new, urgent briefi... ››› more
As predicted, Telkom's (TKG) share price has fallen since I tipped it as a sell above R94.00 eight months ago.
It has plummeted 60% so you could have made some good money shorting this stock.
Now I believe the tide is turning on Telkom as it bounces from R30. The slide is over, and patient investors could make money buying today.
Here's why...
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