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  • Should you use this massive sell-off to buy into China?
  • For years, many in the West have admired the ability of the Chinese Government to push through policies that would never fly in a democratic country. This has allowed them to build structures like the Three Gorges Dam. This hydroelectric project is the world's largest power station and provides about 10% of the country's electricity. But it also required the relocation of over 1 million people.... ››› more
  • [12 May 2022]
  • Should you be adding protection to your portfolio?
  • There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term. Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon. Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
  • [14 April 2022]
  • Should you be afraid of the looming recession? And what to do about it…
  • US bond markets recently went into inversion. This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. And what this can mean is a recession is around the corner. In this case, markets are anticipating a recession sometime in the next 6 to 24 months. But, even if you don't look at such a “technical” indicator, it should be clear the risk of recession is high. T... ››› more
  • [04 April 2022]
  • Tectonic Changes: The Soft Commodity Shift
  • In the modern age things always seem to happen quickly. A few weeks ago, I explained how the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the associated sanctions could potentially lead to a shift in world order. It seems this is happening far more quickly than I expected. We have now seen firm commitments from European countries to massively increase their defence spending. We've also seen tangible ... ››› more
  • [28 March 2022]
  • How to profit off this 200-year-old mega-trend
  • The most important news is often the easiest to miss. Why? Because for a story to be truly important, it usually needs to be about something that is both long lasting and/or has exponential characteristics. Most of what really affects your life is long-term exponential trends. A terrorist attack using aeroplanes may make for a spectacular news story, but the long-term improvement ... ››› more
  • [08 November 2021]
  • If you're a fan of structured products you might like this one
  • I have been picking structured products for several years now and rarely have I seen a product as good as the one I've found this month. Tell me where you've ever heard of an investment that: Has a 100% capital guarantee, Delivers 400% of UNCAPPED index performance, Offers a guaranteed 12% tax-rate on your final return, Is backed by an A-rated international bank, ... ››› more
  • [05 November 2021]
  • One Formula to calculate what you need to recover after a bunch of losing trades
  • Q. “Hi Timon, it's been a tough two months trading, with this sideways market. Right now, I'm worried because I'm down 15% of my portfolio. It's entirely my fault as I let my trades run down without a stop loss. Do you possibly have a calculation that I can use to see how much I need to recover to get my portfolio back to what it was?”   A. Hi Andrew, yes it is most defin... ››› more
  • [01 October 2020]
  • In Gold We Trust…
  • If you look closely at any US Dollar note, you'll see In God We Trust, this has been America's motto since 1956. It replaced its unification slogan of E Pluribus, Unum from 1776. But in America, there's a second motto and that's In Gold We Trust. Gold (and precious metal) coins have been selling at a significant premium since the March lows. Gold has been on a tear since the coronavirus low ... ››› more
  • [28 July 2020]
  • My Structured Product Pick for June 2020
  • It's very hard to make sense of markets right now. On the one hand, it's crystal clear the economy is in a mess. Unemployment is even higher than the worst of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The damage done by lockdowns cannot be easily undone. On the other hand, governments have pumped unprecedented amounts of money into the system and the market seems to be on an unstoppable rise. J... ››› more
  • [19 June 2020]
  • The Rand has recovered over 12%, now is the time to invest offshore
  • Many investors rush for the exit at the same time, causing a whip-saw effect in asset prices. The Rand is particularly vulnerable to this as one of the major currencies. Emerging market (EM) investors can use it as a proxy for less liquid EM currencies, and use it to hedge as it has the benefit of straddling trading hours in parts of Asia and America. There are two ways for you to get ... ››› more
  • [17 June 2020]
  • How to invest to protect your portfolio in 2020 and beyond
  • Central banks have vowed to do what ever it takes to ignite economic growth. Growth is the only thing that will address the Covid-19 unemployment crisis facing the world. That means there will be a lot of cheap and seemingly “free” money thrown at this problem. We have several central bankers talking this week and our own monetary policy committee is due to make an interest rate an... ››› more
  • [20 May 2020]
  • 3 Investment Strategies that work!!
  • I'm often asked where I invest my own funds and how individuals “beat the market”? I have been trading for 25 years and Finova has been focused on Financial Innovation for 15 years and these 3 strategies have consistently produced unbeatable returns in these markets: ________________________________________   The man who bought bitcoin for just $12 now says…   “B... ››› more
  • [21 January 2020]
  • Do this now and Januworry will never mess with you again
  • Can you believe it's ‘Januworry' again? I honestly think there's nothing worse than the point when your bank account tells you, you had just a little too much fun over the December holidays. Thankfully, 2020 could be the very last January you ever feel this way - IF you make this pre-emptive strike today.   ________________________________________     The man who bo... ››› more
  • [16 January 2020]
  • QE infinity and SAs last chance
  • Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives. After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents. Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day. The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
  • [07 November 2019]
  • It's time to sell the Rand
  • The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month. And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow. There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK. These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD. Look at t... ››› more
  • [29 October 2019]
  • When low cost passive investing becomes expensive
  • Many retail investors are bombarded with ways to invest through exchange traded funds (ETF), most of which passively track an index. The ETF platforms highlight how cheap they are, but in actual fact they aren't cheaper. If you have more than R80,000 in the account, its expensive. The ETF platforms charge between 0.35% and 0.65% ex VAT just for annual admin fees. That's on top of the other fees... ››› more
  • [24 October 2019]
  • Grow your portfolio with these JSE “Safe Haven” investment opportunities
  • Week after week, market commentators highlight how investors are not making positive returns in USD. The US dollar is king now, with it paying a positive yield and investors who have missed the gold rally are hording it. This has caused liquidity to be squeezed. It's increasingly likely that President Trump will use the 1934 Gold Reserve Act to sell US Dollars and buy foreign currency as a way... ››› more
  • [08 October 2019]
  • What to do ahead of 2020's looming recession
  • Recent poll numbers show that President Trump has lost some serious favour with his core constituency. I can't say I'm surprised. The trade war has hit American farmers hard. With the Chinese increasing tariffs on US agricultural goods, Chinese customers are no longer buying them. And that means that Trump needs to act - and fast - if he wants any chances at securing a second term in t... ››› more
  • [19 September 2019]
  • Why ETFs could cause the next market crash
  • If you've ever watched The Big Short, chances are you know who Michael Burry is. He's the guy who figured out a bubble was forming in the US housing markets pre-2008. He also correctly predicted a market crash would ensue and made a ton of money shorting the housing market. This week, he noted there are correlations between the bubble which formed in the housing market and Exchange Traded Fund... ››› more
  • [12 September 2019]
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