The US-China trade war just might be the catalyst that will send America into its next great recession.
But I don't worry about that because there is always a profit opportunity that will follow…
In fact, there is one indicator that shows a major 20% crash for the S&P 500 is likely, thanks to this impending recession.
Let me explain why the S&P will fall...
Th... ››› more
If you've ever watched The Big Short, chances are you know who Michael Burry is. He's the guy who figured out a bubble was forming in the US housing markets pre-2008. He also correctly predicted a market crash would ensue and made a ton of money shorting the housing market.
This week, he noted there are correlations between the bubble which formed in the housing market and Exchange Traded Fund... ››› more
Q. “I heard there is an anomaly event that takes place in September which traders should be wary of. Could you explain what the ‘September Effect' is and why they believe it is a bad month for investing in stocks.”
A. September has been known over the last 100 years as the worst performing month for stocks, due to two main reasons…
First, investors are worried about upcoming third-... ››› more
Markets have been incredibly skittish over the last week.
And, while there are many reasons for concern, one of the main issues driving share prices lower is fear over the “inverted yield curve”.
If you skim the financial news, you'll see headlines like:
“Yield curve inversion hammers US small banks”
“Bond market yield curve inverts, signalling Fed may be too slow to cut... ››› more
Q. "Hi Timon thanks for the Cannabis article! It really seems like this is the new mainstream way of investing in the near future thanks to legislative changes in the US, Canada and now South Africa. Would you perhaps know the most popular and most traded cannabis stocks to trade offshore? With the rate that the JSE has been crashing, it might be a good hedge investment opportunity."
A. It ca... ››› more
The rand has collapsed over the last two weeks. It moved from below R13,90/$ to worse than R15,30/$. That's more than 10% weaker in a fortnight. Obviously, many of you are worried you've lost your chance to get money out of SA at a reasonable exchange rate.
The question on everyone's mind: Should you get out now or wait for a better level?
The only way to answer this question is to look f... ››› more
The ongoing trade war between the US and China escalated last week when President Trump said they would initiate another 10% tariff hike on Chinese imports worth $300 billion effective 1 September 2019.
Since then, we have seen a huge drop - over 5% on the S&P500, Dow Jones, Yuan currency and even the JSE.
Investors are becoming really worried about global stability and it's driving them ... ››› more
We are already in July 2019 and in the last six months, we've seen the SP500 index rise 17% for the first time since 1997.
With the truce agreement between the US and China that took place at the G20 summit, the rumours about the FED cutting interest rates and the index breaking above the psychological 3,000 level - It looks like we are in for a very profitable ride with the SP500.
But, ... ››› more
If you're interested in making money in the US markets, I have an amazing opportunity for you today.
With the G20 coming to an end on a high note, with the US adding 100s of thousands of more jobs and with the Dow Jones hitting all-time highs, I believe this is just the start of a long run up.
In today's article, I'm going to highlight why the Dow Jones is set to fly over 16.69% in the nex... ››› more
Bungee jumping is a terrifying experience.
It requires you to risk your life (literally) on the strength of a piece of rubberised string.
Now the statistics are very clear: Bungee jumping is safe.
But, when you tip toe to the edge of Bloukrans bridge, look over into the abyss and push off into blue sky with nothing but an elastic around your ankles… well you get the picture.
Fina... ››› more
Q. "I received a trade from PickPocket Trader last week to short the rand using CFDs. Could you tell me a formula I can use to know how many CFDs I must sell, in a way that I don't lose more than 2% on my R35,000 portfolio?"
A. The CFD calculation for Forex currency pairs is a little different to the calculation you need for buying stock CFDs.
Here's a formula you can use for currency CFD... ››› more
President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back.
President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
The last time gold was at $1,400+ was back in August 2013.
But on Tuesday 25 June 2019 it hit a high of $1,436 to an ounce.
Currently the gold price has pulled back a bit from this sharp rally and sits at $1,408.
But here’s the thing – on 28 May gold sold for $1,276 an ounce. So the shiny metal is up 10.3% since then.
What’s behind this ... ››› more
Q. "I would like to know if it's wise to start trading with capital of R10,000? I am a beginner and have never traded before?"
A. I always recommend a starting portfolio value of at least R5,000, when you start to trade.
Not only will you be able to grow your account larger and at a faster rate, but also because of these four main reasons.
Reason #1: More funds mean more trades... ››› more
On 6 May 2019, I sent a gold prediction article where I mentioned that when the gold price hits the popular 200MA line, buyers go crazy, which they did.
And since then, the gold price has pierced right through the predicted target within just one month.
Take a look at the before and after chart to see what I mean.
It’s also great to know that a few of our members mana... ››› more
Warren Buffett has many great investment quotes, but perhaps my favourite is “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1”. This has never been more applicable than now. The world is about to become a far more uncertain place for investors as a series of political and economic events threaten to derail the global economy.
Number one on the list of threats is the US-Ch... ››› more
The US/China trade war has continued to escalate as President Trump tries to lock in a victory ahead of next year's presidential elections.
Huawei, the Chinese smartphone maker, is the most recent target of his attacks. The company uses Google's Android operating system for its phones and due to US sanctions, it is likely that Google will be prevented from doing business with the company.
... ››› more
Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases.
Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
Q. “I want to understand trading in a simple way, as I don't understand much about trading. Please can you answer the following questions.
1. What does an entry level mean?
2. What is a stop loss level?
3. What is a take profit level?
4. How do you cancel a trade that hasn't been taken?
5. How do I confirm that I have exited a trade?
I would appreciate your help Timon.
... ››› more
Early in February this year, I sent out a prediction on the Brent crude oil price and why I expected it to hit $76.60.
Right now, the oil price is on par with the prediction as, last week, it rose above the $70 mark.
But something has changed…
In fact, I expect the Brent Crude price to rise even higher than I ever imagined. This is all thanks to Opec, five countries and a promising c... ››› more
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