It's been a tough start for equity markets this year. Last night the Dow fell more than 600 points, which is the worst decline yet in 2022. And that's saying something. As I warned in November last year (near record highs for the tech-heavy Nasdaq) higher inflation numbers will put pressure on growth stocks.
The Nasdaq composite fell another -2.9% last night. That means the index is now down -1... ››› more
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Welcome to the first prediction article for the year.
And what better way to start, than to see where our currency is heading.
Now if you've been following my rand predictions from last year, you'd know that I expected the rand to strengthen from R16.50 down to R15.00 against the US dollar.
If you missed the article, you can catch up here...
America is going to hell - And the S... ››› more
“Timon since Joe Biden won the elections, do you think it is another reason why we can expect the American markets to help the JSE rally from here?”
A. Oh absolutely… In fact, when Joe Biden won the elections, that week was the start of both a local and global rally.
And in just one month, the JSE and the American markets broke out of their downtrend, and have been edg... ››› more
Q. "Timon with Joe Biden becoming the next president, what are your thoughts on energy and oil prices?"
A. For a short answer, I have never been more bullish (positive) with oil and the energy sectors.
You see, with the Donald Trump administration there were ongoing trade wars and tension with China over the last four years.
And for this reason, we ke... ››› more
Last week was crazy for all sorts of reasons…
Bitcoin hit $16,000 - the highest level since 2018.
The JSE rallied over 7%.
Covid-19 cases spiked in the US and Europe forcing new lockdown measures.
However, the main focus on everybody's mind was the highly anticipated US elections on Tuesday.
Although the election may still be contested (due to Trump's legal challenges), there... ››› more
Just one week ago, I was feeling very bearish and down with the markets.
I thought Donald Trump would stay president until 2024. I thought we weren't going to see any signs of a vaccine. And I thought South Africa would head back into lockdown.
Boy was I wrong. And I couldn't be any happier with being wrong.
Before we knew it, there was a massive change of hearts in the markets this we... ››› more
Q. “Timon you were right about the delay in the voting in the USA, due to the counting of hand mail.
But now the big question is.
What can we expect with the US stock markets, with Joe Biden becoming the next American President?”
A. I did some research on the weekend. When I went to back-test the US stock markets over the last 23 election years, what I found might surprise ... ››› more
Last week, was a wild ride.
We had a global sell-off in stocks and currencies due to:
• The nail-biting election between Trump & Biden
• Major dollar weakness with the lack of confidence in America
• A resurgence in COVID-19 cases to new highs in Europe and America
And while all hell was breaking loose, the South African rand was on fire.
In fact, last week it broke below ... ››› more
The only thing on investors' minds right now is the US election.
At the time of writing the final votes have yet to be tallied. Right now, many battleground states are still up for grabs, with Pennsylvania looking like the key to victory.
Trump has already claimed the win and approached the courts filing multiple lawsuits in most of the swing states. He's demanded a recount in Wisconsin. A... ››› more
Right now everyone's talking about the US presidential elections. While the US president doesn't directly affect us - what happens to the US economy affects the entire world. So, there's definitely some merit in keeping an eye on the Americans…
Similarly - in 2021 we'll have local government elections again in SA as well.
So how do elections affect the stock market? And is there anything... ››› more
4 Words…
Election, Stimulus, Resurgence and Rectangle.
These four words, could be the underlying reasons for a major Dow Jones crash.
I'm sure you felt things were starting to get better, economically, socially and mentally.
We were wrong…
The next COVID-19 wave has already hit America and Europe, and it's a matter of time before it comes back to South Africa.
And I'm d... ››› more
Market sentiment has improved since President Trump's release from hospital, and we head into third quarter (Q3) earnings season.
Analyst forecasts on the S&P500 (a gauge for global equity markets) signals a potential decline of 20.5% for Q3, this would be the second largest Q3 decline since 2009.
Analysts expect a decline in earnings in the fourth quarter of 11.8%, and a return to earning... ››› more
To think, in 2011, Brent Crude was at $120 barrel. And today is barely hanging onto $40.
This was all thanks to the Corona-crisis.
In fact, we are now seeing a resurgence in Europe with new restrictions and lockdowns.
And just look at who's contracted the virus.
• President Donald Trump and the first lady
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Brazil's Jair Bolsnaro
• ... ››› more
The rand has been extremely volatile this year, ranging between R14/USD to over R19/USD. Recently, the currency seems to have found a range between R16.40/USD and R17.20/USD. This stability may be short-lived however as the rest of the year will likely prove turbulent.
Overseas, we have the US election looming in early November. It's set to be one of the most contentious in recent memory. Thou... ››› more
The Rand followed the technical pattern in textbook fashion last week banking 3.5% ungeared. That's 35% using futures and as much as 350% on margin if you were trading CFDs.
Right now the Rand is at a crucial technical level as support on the USD/ZAR builds at R16.40.
Look at the chart below to see where the Rand could be headed next…
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... ››› more
Emerging markets and the JSE should continue to grind higher on the back of renewed optimism over stimulus packages from the US.
President Trump has less than 3 months to “ensure” a win. He is pumping further stimulus into the US economy. On Saturday he signed a few executive orders, one of them to defer payroll tax deductions, hinting that they will be scrapped anyway.
The recorded am... ››› more
I think we can all agree. 2020 is completely nuts!
In the last week, we saw a nuclear-sized explosion in Beirut, after 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate flattened the port city.
Trump is trying to force Chinese-backed TikTok to sell its US interests to Microsoft (with the US treasury getting a slice of the action) in what has to be the strangest M&A deal in history.
And we have both the te... ››› more
In the last few weeks, we've finally seen good news come out for South Africa.
I don't want to go into too much detail, but I'll highlight a few of the main points including:
• More businesses and economic activity has started to resume since moving from Level-5 of the lockdown down to Level-4.
• The government has told South Africa that there will be no more load-shedding from Es... ››› more
On Monday, while I was doing my weekly market analysis, I saw something I've never seen before.
For the first time in history, the US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices crashed below zero.
At first, I thought this was just a glitch on my trading platform. But then, just minutes later, it was the breaking news event of the day.
When I did the research, I realised that the demand f... ››› more
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