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Viv Govender, Analyst, Rand Swiss

  • Inflation is back. What to expect, and how to deal with it…
  • Last week the Federal Reserve pushed US interest rates up by 0.75%. This was an attempt to fight inflation which has risen to multi-decade highs. By raising interest rates, the Fed hopes to slow economic growth and stifle employment. This will reduce the demand for goods and services within the economy and (hopefully) get inflation under control. It's important to understand reducing growth,... ››› more
  • [30 June 2022]
  • Are we on the cusp of an AI explosion?
  • Last week, I mentioned Elon Musk's controversial claim that a falling population would result in a serious threat to humanity. I also briefly touched on my own controversial call on Tesla (TLSA). After the feedback from readers, I've decided to expand on Tesla and my current view on the beaten down tech stocks. Firstly, it's important to know there has been a lot of buzz around Artificial Intel... ››› more
  • [23 June 2022]
  • Are we on the cusp of an AI explosion?
  • Last week, I mentioned Elon Musk's controversial claim that a falling population would result in a serious threat to humanity. I also briefly touched on my own controversial call on Tesla (TLSA). After the feedback from readers, I've decided to expand on Tesla and my current view on the beaten down tech stocks. Firstly, it's important to know there has been a lot of buzz around Artificial Intel... ››› more
  • [16 June 2022]
  • Is Elon Musk right about a population crash?
  • Elon Musk recently courted controversy by claiming a population collapse, not overpopulation, is a significant global threat. You might think that sounds strange. The world population is at the highest it has ever been and is still rising. A higher population also means more competition for finite resources. Given these facts, why would you worry about a population crash? If anything, you shoul... ››› more
  • [09 June 2022]
  • This little-known bill could cause absolute economic chaos. Are you ready for it?
  • Over the last few years, the world has changed significantly. Things that were once considered virtual impossibilities are now reality. Of course, I'm talking about the Global Pandemic, but also the seemly wild decisions being taken by global governments. If I'd told you, even a few years ago, that Russia would mount a full-scale attack on the Ukraine, or that Britain would leave the EU, or you mi... ››› more
  • [24 May 2022]
  • Should you use this massive sell-off to buy into China?
  • For years, many in the West have admired the ability of the Chinese Government to push through policies that would never fly in a democratic country. This has allowed them to build structures like the Three Gorges Dam. This hydroelectric project is the world's largest power station and provides about 10% of the country's electricity. But it also required the relocation of over 1 million people.... ››› more
  • [12 May 2022]
  • The current selloff is great for long-term investors. Here's why…
  • Over the last few months, I've written quite a few rather bleak articles (to say the least). I've issued warning after warning about the state of the financial markets. So, if you follow my Money Morning column regularly, you may easily believe I'm a permabear. A permabear is someone who believes markets will fall no matter what the conditions on the ground look like. Given my very negative sla... ››› more
  • [03 May 2022]
  • Special Update: The looming global food crisis. And what to do about it.
  • A few weeks ago, I made a rather extreme prediction. I predicted the world would be entering a period of greater instability triggered specifically by food price increases. Normally I would wait a little longer before writing a follow up, but things are changing rapidly on the ground. Over the last week or so, we've seen upticks in instability across much of the emerging world. Protests have er... ››› more
  • [21 April 2022]
  • Should you be adding protection to your portfolio?
  • There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term. Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon. Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
  • [14 April 2022]
  • Should you be afraid of the looming recession? And what to do about it…
  • US bond markets recently went into inversion. This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. And what this can mean is a recession is around the corner. In this case, markets are anticipating a recession sometime in the next 6 to 24 months. But, even if you don't look at such a “technical” indicator, it should be clear the risk of recession is high. T... ››› more
  • [04 April 2022]
  • Tectonic Changes: The Soft Commodity Shift
  • In the modern age things always seem to happen quickly. A few weeks ago, I explained how the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the associated sanctions could potentially lead to a shift in world order. It seems this is happening far more quickly than I expected. We have now seen firm commitments from European countries to massively increase their defence spending. We've also seen tangible ... ››› more
  • [28 March 2022]
  • Why China will ultimately win the Russia-Ukraine war
  • As the war between Russia and the Ukraine continues to dominate headlines, we're starting to see a realignment of the global order. The US, and its allies in Europe, are driving the push back against the invasion. You may find this astonishing (especially if you only get your news from US and European media outlets) but they're finding little support in the rest of the world. South America, Afr... ››› more
  • [17 March 2022]
  • Facebook's share price is still falling… Should you buy the dip?
  • It's been a tough start for equity markets this year. Last night the Dow fell more than 600 points, which is the worst decline yet in 2022. And that's saying something. As I warned in November last year (near record highs for the tech-heavy Nasdaq) higher inflation numbers will put pressure on growth stocks. The Nasdaq composite fell another -2.9% last night. That means the index is now down -1... ››› more
  • [22 February 2022]
  • Is a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) really a no-brainer investment?
  • Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are one of the most underappreciated investment vehicles in the country. So, it's rather difficult to understand why most people still don't use them. They're one of the only tax efficient vehicles that come with almost no negatives. What is a TFSA? It’s an investment vehicle in which all income or growth on investments held inside are tax-free. This includ... ››› more
  • [04 February 2022]
  • How to pay less tax
  • As the old saying goes: “There are only two certainties in life, death and taxes.” So, when you can avoid either, you should take it. Just as you'd grab hold of a lifesaving medical treatment, so you should jump on any opportunity to reduce your tax burden. The South African government gives you very few opportunities to reduce your tax burden compared to other countries. But two of the sim... ››› more
  • [04 February 2022]
  • What does the US inflation figure mean for your portfolio?
  • US inflation came in at 7% on Wednesday. This is so far beyond the US target rate of 2% it's terrifying. To give you some perspective about how big a miss this is, our SA target rate is up to 6%. So, to miss it as much as the US did, our inflation rate would need to be 21%. Up until recently, the US Fed argued they didn't have to raise interest rates to combat inflation, since it was “t... ››› more
  • [18 January 2022]
  • What should you learn from the Turkish lira crisis?
  • In Ernest Hemingway's 1926 novel “The Sun Also Rises” two characters are discussing bankruptcy: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways” Mike said, “gradually and then suddenly”. The “slowly at first, and then all at once” concept is wonderfully described in Malcom Gladwell's debut book The Tipping Point. Gladwell defines this idea as “the moment of critica... ››› more
  • [08 December 2021]


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