The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
For almost 130 years the JSE was the only stock exchange in South Africa.
But as of a couple of years ago that changed when three new exchanges were given stock exchange licences.
In 2019 the JSE has seen 21 companies de-list. Digging a little deeper, it's important to take note of what's been happening with the competition…
All three of these JSE competitors are growing
... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month.
And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow.
There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK.
These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD.
Look at t... ››› more
It's been a tough few weeks for South Africa.
It all started when finance minister, Tito Mboweni, unveiled yet another bailout for Eskom. The R59 billion taxpayer band aid then spooked international investors and prompted announcements from ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's.
Both echoed the usual concerns about slowing growth, rising government debt and the inability of our policy framewo... ››› more
The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road.
Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
I was wrong about the rand. I thought it was going to go up to R10 a dollar, but I'm not going to cry about it.
You can see looking at the USD/ZAR (United States Dollar versus the South African Dollar) weekly chart, a large wedge pattern formed from January 2016 up ‘till August 2017.
A wedge pattern is known as a reversal pattern where the price wedges down into a triangle formation. And a... ››› more
Pips, strength, weakness, ZAR, USD!
If you've watched Bloomberg, CNBC or sky news, it can be a daunting task to try and understand all of these jargon Forex terms.
But what If I could show you how to understand these currency pairs in a way you'll never forget it.
I'm not going to bore you with too much information. In fact, one chart is all we need to make sure you remember how to und... ››› more
When I heard the results of the Brexit vote last Friday, I was watching TV, clutching a cup of coffee and snuggling under a blanket with my sons in the diamond city, Kimberley.
As soon as the news bulletin ended, my phone started to buzz uncontrollably.
First, a message from my brother asking, “Did you see the Brexit result?” I ignored it. Then, a message from a colleague, “How could... ››› more
This week, the South African Rand is at its highest level in seven weeks. It's clawing back against the dollar trading at around R14.74.
I don't know about you but I certainly didn't expect the rand to gain so much ground. I must admit that I had severely negative outlook for the rand this month.
With the political unrest in Tshwane and a new wave of violent strikes in the country, I expect... ››› more
The past few weeks have been harrowing for the rand.
It's been taking a severe beating from the dollar in the past two weeks.
Worst of all, rumours about the arrest of Pravin Gordhan has certainly not been helping matters at all. But, finally, it seems to have found a moment of stability. How long this will last, I don't know.
But let's take a closer look...
The rand is battered by t... ››› more
Ask any South African. “Where do you think the rand is going next” You'll probably hear answers like I've been hearing, “The rand is going down the drain”, “going to hell, “going to S#^t” But not me! Today I'm going against 99% of what South Africans say, as I expect the rand to go up from here.
Read on to see why…
I haven’t made a wrong prediction yet!
I joined FSPInvest.... ››› more
Normally when I write about the rand, I expect the rand value to drop big time.
• In 2013, I told you how the rand was going from R9.00 to R10.50 to the dollar.
• In 2015, I showed you how the rand was going from 11.00 to R16.00 to the dollar
• And now I'm about to reveal where I expect the rand to go from R16.00
Fortunately over the years, every time I made a rand prediction it worked ... ››› more
Last week, President Zuma made an unexpected announcement.
Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene was let off (dare I say fired). And the sad thing is that he has been widely known to do a great job during difficult times. And is probably one of the most qualified person for the job. But as soon as the announcement came out, the rand crashed. It moved from R14.50 to R15.29 to the US dollar in just one h... ››› more
What a bitter-sweet situation we're in.
Jobs are being created in the United States of America and the economy is growing at a good pace. While back in South Africa we have the rand devaluing at record levels which is making it more and more expensive to travel and buy goods.
You can understand why it's a win/lose situation. But it doesn't have to be.
Let me take it a step further.
... ››› more
There's a new stock exchange in the process of starting up in South Africa.
It's the first exchange that's applied that's got as far as the public comment stage.
And if this application is successful it'll be the first new exchange in South Africa in the last 120 years.
The reason why I'm so excited about this new exchange is its target market. Is aim is to give a home to small, agile companies... ››› more
Oi vey! That's what I hear from Aiden every day in the office, while he's reading the news.
Who can blame him with the economy and political situation going awry.
Sure we have less lights, water and food but there's something even bigger brewing.
This chart sends a shiver down my spine, because if it plays out, it could be the end of South Africa as we know it.
Let me explain…
The ... ››› more
Last week, the world was waiting to hear the outcome of the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting.
In fact, analysts waited for the announcement on a massive quantitative easing programme. This is where the ECB could buy bonds up to R670 billion per month, until the end of 2016!
This is double than what any analyst expected. And while they were waiting, the South African Rand was just goin... ››› more
Things aren't looking good for the rand!
This week it was announced that the country's account deficit widened to 6.2% of GDP compared to 4.5% in the first quarter.
And when the account deficit widens, the rand is more vulnerable than its global market peers.
But don't just take my word for it. Here's what John Clairns, a currency analyst at Rand Merchant Bank, has to say.
“The co... ››› more
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