The shift from a “shadow war” to open conflict in early March 2026 has quickly altered the global economic outlook for the year.
What began on February 28 with targeted U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian security and nuclear infrastructure has escalated into a broader regional confrontation. For investors, the geopolitical risk premium has moved from an abstract concept to a key driver of market performance.
For years, Artificial Intelligence has in many ways been “the future.” Yes, we marvelled at early generative models that could write poems, create pictures and video or suggest code, but there was always a fundamental disconnect between AI and real work. AI was a destination—a tab you opened, a box you typed into, and a service that waited for you to speak first.
Read MoreNATO spending targets have shifted from 2% of GDP to as high as 5%, with some analysts suggesting even higher allocations during the initial build-out phase. When policy moves at this scale, industries tied to that spending tend to reprice. European defence is one of them.
Read MoreThere are few people as prone to conspiracy theories as commodity traders. Be it the idea that as much as one-third of the reported gold in vaults is just gold-plated tungsten, that most of US foreign policy is driven by oil, or that major banks hoarded aluminium to boost the price—costing consumers as much as $5 billion. But few markets attract more suspicion—or more drama—than silver.
Read MoreWe are, as the saying goes, living in strange times. But while it’s impossible to predict exactly what lies ahead, we can identify the major trends shaping the landscape—and position ourselves accordingly. Here are the three trends I believe will define 2026—and what they mean for your portfolio.
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