In 1877, the rains never came. Across huge swaths of the world – southern Africa, India, China, Brazil – crops failed. Rivers dried up. Food shortfalls spiralled into one of the deadliest catastrophes in modern history.
Historians estimate that tens of millions perished as harvests collapsed on multiple continents simultaneously.
Most people today have never heard of it.
But scientists now believe the same type of event – a Super El Niño – may be forming again. And the latest data suggests this one could be historically stronger than anything since that 1877 event.
How is El Niño formed?
El Niño is a natural climate cycle driven by the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. When warm water accumulates, it disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns globally causing drought in some regions, floods in others, and heat virtually everywhere.
A Super El Niño is an extreme version. It has happened only four times since 1950: 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015.
Each time, the consequences were felt across every continent.
The 2026 event is now tracking faster and stronger than any of its predecessors at this stage. NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Centre gives an 82% probability of El Niño establishing by July 2026 – up from 61% just weeks ago – and a 96% probability it persists through early 2027.
Most strikingly, a massive subsurface Kelvin wave – a pulse of warm water moving beneath the Pacific’s surface – is currently running at +8°C anomalies, warmer than the equivalent point in the 1997 event, which produced one of the most damaging El Niños in recorded history. Multiple ensemble models suggest the 2026–27 event could become the strongest in modern meteorological history, potentially surpassing the 1877 benchmark.
South Africa is directly in the El Niño crosshairs, but the timing matters
The good news and the bad news are separated by about six months.
The good news is immediate. South Africa is currently expecting its largest grain harvest on record – approximately 20.8 million tons, with maize output of around 16.8 million tons, well above the country’s annual requirement of 12 million tons. There’s no food crisis today and near-term supplies are ample.
The bad news arrives in October.
That’s when South Africa’s summer planting season begins, and that’s precisely when the El Niño drought conditions are expected to tighten their grip on southern Africa. The country’s maize, wheat, sunflower, and soybean crops are all highly sensitive to reduced rainfall during the critical planting and growing window.
History tells us what this means in practice. During a mild mid-summer drought in 2023–24, South Africa’s maize harvest fell 22% in a single season, from 16.5 million tons to 12.9 million tons. During the severe droughts of 2017–18 and 2018–19, the crop fell to an average of 11.8 million tons.
If a Super El Niño delivers rainfall deficits to the maize triangle of the Free State, Mpumalanga, and North West province during the 2026–27 season, a decline of that scale or worse becomes very plausible.
South Africa’s agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo of AgBiz, who tracks this more closely than almost anyone, is unambiguous: “The El Niño will impact the 2026–27 summer crop season. Its impact on food price inflation will be more visible in 2027. By end of 2026, we may start to see a slight uptick in grain prices if there are clear signs of drought”.
The SARB has already flagged this risk in its April Monetary Policy Review – noting El Niño as a key upside risk to the inflation outlook alongside elevated oil prices.
The double hit: drought meets an already strained system
What makes the 2026 El Niño particularly dangerous for South Africa is the environment it is arriving into.
The country is already dealing with elevated food inflation pressures from rising fuel costs driven by the Iran war. Fuel prices are a direct input into agricultural logistics and 80–90% of South African food products are transported by road.
Fertiliser prices, themselves linked to energy costs, are elevated and rising further as the sulphuric acid shortage (which we covered last week) bites into global production. Western Cape wheat farmers are already expected to plant the lowest wheat acreage in 12 years.
Add a severe drought to that combination – higher input costs, reduced crop area, and production losses – and the food inflation picture for 2027 becomes significantly more concerning than the relatively contained position South Africa is in today.
There is also a regional dimension that matters. Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi sit at the epicentre of southern Africa’s drought zone. These countries have less buffer, less commercialised agriculture, and less capacity to absorb shocks. A severe El Niño across the region strains supply chains, drives regional food prices higher, and increases South Africa’s exposure to food imports from markets that are simultaneously under stress.
Zambia, which relies on the Kariba Dam for most of its electricity, saw rolling blackouts for months during the 2024 El Niño drought as hydro generation collapsed. South Africa knows that scenario well from its own dam-level vulnerabilities.
What investors should watch
The investment implications play out on two timelines.
1) Near-term (now to September 2026): South Africa’s record harvest provides a genuine buffer. Food inflation is contained. The agricultural sector is in good shape. Agribusinesses and food retailers operating on current stock levels face a manageable environment.
2) Medium-term (October 2026 onwards): The planting season begins. If El Niño conditions materialise as forecast, maize prices will begin rising by late 2026. Food CPI – already expected to push toward 4.7% to 4.9% by June from the oil shock alone – faces an additional upward driver in 2027. The SARB’s rate path becomes harder to predict. Consumer spending at lower income levels comes under additional pressure.
Shares in companies exposed to food retail at the lower-income segment (Shoprite) tend to benefit from trading-down behaviour in inflationary environments
Food producers face a more complicated picture, and here the El Niño timing matters enormously. Right now, these companies are in their best operating environment in years. Lower maize and grain prices over the past 12–18 months have dramatically reduced feed costs for poultry producers.
The El Niño risk reverses this equation sharply. Maize is the primary feed input for poultry. When El Niño reduces the harvest (as it did by 22% in 2023–24) feed costs surge and producer margins compress.
The previous drought cycle of 2015–17 sent white maize prices to import parity levels roughly 30–40% above export parity, flowing directly through to earnings at both Astral and Rainbow. Investors holding poultry producers are currently in a favourable window, but one with a visible expiry date if October’s planting season confirms drought conditions.
The category most directly at risk if food inflation re-accelerates is fixed income. Any scenario that delays SARB rate cuts or re-opens the possibility of rate hikes is negative for bonds and property.
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