In a first-of-its-kind move, the Trump administration struck a tech deal with Nvidia and AMD: keep selling “China-legal” AI chips into the mainland, but hand over 15% of that revenue to the US government. This is not a tariff – it’s tolls for access.
The deal covers Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, both engineered to skirt existing performance limits. In return, the companies keep their China channels open, a market they can’t afford to lose.
For Nvidia and AMD, the 15% haircut is painful but survivable, and it buys time to sell into one of the only markets outside the US that can absorb tens of thousands of chips quickly.
This news came barely a week after the White House floated 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors. Put the two together and you see the shape of the Trump Administration’s strategy:
1. Tariffs push manufacturing back onshore.
2. Revenue sharing monetises the US IP that still gets sold abroad.
This is the part investors should really watch…
Why?
Well, this export-levy model could easily spread beyond semiconductors.
For example, in biotech, cutting-edge gene editing tools, mRNA platforms, and advanced medical diagnostics are all areas where the US, Europe, and
Japan have a technological lead and could impose export levies to countries deemed competitors.
In green tech, proprietary battery chemistries, next-generation solar panels, and wind turbine designs could be priced with a political surcharge.
Even luxury goods – from high-end fashion to prestige vehicles – could face similar tolls, particularly if countries want to extract more value from foreign brands tapping into wealthy consumer markets.
On the other side, countries like China could apply the same tactic in reverse. For example, rare earth metals – essential for EVs, wind turbines, and defence systems – are a strategic resource where China controls a large share of global supply.
Instead of imposing outright bans, Beijing could simply charge a “strategic export fee” to US or European buyers, maximising revenue while maintaining leverage.
The beauty of this model, from a policymaker’s standpoint, is its flexibility. It doesn’t force a full decoupling, but it reshapes trade flows into toll roads where governments can dial the cost up or down depending on political priorities.
For businesses, it means factoring geopolitical tolls into their cost structures will become as routine as budgeting for tariffs or currency fluctuations.
And for investors, recognising which sectors are next in line – and which companies can absorb the toll while keeping their competitive edge – may be the difference between catching the next big wave and being left behind on the shore.
Robots step out of the factory and into the mall
Sticking with tech, last week, Beijing opened the world’s first dedicated “Robot Mall,” where customers can browse more than 50 robots across seven categories, from medical and manufacturing units to humanoid butlers and even an Albert Einstein look-alike.
Prices range from a few hundred dollars to several million, signalling that robotics is no longer confined to industrial plants or research labs.
This grand opening is China’s latest push to commercialise advanced robotics, an industry it is all-in on.
But this isn’t a localised trend. It’s growing worldwide.
Amazon’s vision: Warehouses without humans
Amazon, which began using robots to shift inventory shelves in 2012, now has over 1 million in operation.
Its newest fulfilment centres are designed for near-total automation, with robots handling inventory movement, package transport, and picking tasks.
Humans still check in occasionally, but the heavy lifting is all automated now.
But that’s not all…
In San Francisco, Amazon’s “humanoid park” is training bipedal robots like Digit to navigate warehouses and deliver packages. The goal is clear: fewer humans per package, more packages per day, and lower delivery costs.
When robots can perform all the light manufacturing and services that humans can, it becomes blindingly obvious that the world of the future will look little like the world today.
It doesn’t take much imagination to realise that investors can generate massive profits from this trend. According to Markets Research Future, the global robotics market is on track to QUADRUPLE from $74 billion today to $287 billion by 2032, after all.
For investors, this isn’t just about buying robot manufacturers – it’s about the entire ecosystem: AI software, machine vision, advanced sensors, and robotics operating systems that will underpin the next wave of automation. To stay on top of this megatrend and the best investment opportunities, make sure you’re subscribed to South African Investor.
Not a subscriber to Money Morning?
You can get free daily recommendations like these with Money Morning eletter. Just sign up here.
