Should you invest in the hottest IPO of 2026?

For the first time in more than 50 years, humans are travelling beyond Earth orbit – looping around the Moon and heading back home. NASA’s Artemis program has officially left Earth, with astronauts aboard Artemis II already executing a lunar flyby and setting distance records never seen since the Apollo era. Now, while the world is focused on the spectacle – the images, the milestones, the emotion – something quieter is building on the ground: A potential IPO from SpaceX that could ride this wave of excitement straight into the public markets.

That connection is where things get interesting…

You see, Artemis II is more than a symbolic return to deep space.

It’s a live demonstration that a new space economy is real. The mission is testing the systems, trajectories, and human endurance needed for sustained lunar exploration – a stepping stone to future landings and even Mars missions.

And critically, NASA isn’t doing this alone.

The Artemis program is built around partnerships with private companies. For future missions, including lunar landings, SpaceX’s Starship is expected to act as the human landing system – the vehicle that will take astronauts from lunar orbit down to the Moon’s surface.

Simply put – governments may lead the missions. But companies like SpaceX are becoming the infrastructure. And when a company sits at the centre of something this big, investors start paying attention.

A $1.75 trillion debut for Spacex?

According to reports, SpaceX has filed confidentially for an initial public offering that could land as soon as mid-2026. The rumoured valuation? Around $1.75 trillion.

That would instantly place it among the largest companies on Earth – in the same league as giants like Microsoft and Apple.

It’s a staggering figure, especially for a business that, while dominant in rocket launches and satellite deployment, still operates in a capital-intensive and evolving industry.

There’s no doubt SpaceX has real achievements behind it. Reusable rockets, rapid launch cadence, and its Starlink satellite network have reshaped the economics of space. But valuation matters, and at this level, expectations are already sky-high.

Part of the excitement comes from broader momentum.

The space sector has quietly been one of the market’s strongest performers. Funds like the Procure Space ETF have surged, more than doubling over the past year and continuing to climb in 2026 – even as the broader S&P 500 has struggled.

That creates a powerful narrative: a fast-growing industry, a market leader, and a rare chance to invest.

Add in the influence of Elon Musk (who also runs Tesla) and you have the perfect recipe for investor excitement.

But excitement and good returns are not always the same thing.

Red Flag #1: Retail investors getting preferential access

One of the more unusual aspects of this IPO is the reported plan to allocate up to 30% of shares to everyday investors.

That might sound like a win. Typically, only 5% to 10% of IPO shares are reserved for retail buyers, with the bulk going to large institutions.

But this shift raises an important question: why?

When a deal is truly irresistible, institutional investors usually absorb most of the supply. Opening the door wider to retail investors can sometimes signal that demand needs a boost, or that hype is being leaned on more than fundamentals.

It’s an old market truth: if something is presented as a “can’t miss” opportunity for everyone, it’s worth asking who benefits most from that narrative.

Red Flag #2: Hype can disconnect price from reality

We’ve seen this movie before.

During the 2021 meme-stock surge, companies like GameStop became symbols of retail investor power. Prices soared – not because of improving business performance, but because of momentum and excitement.

Eventually, reality caught up. GameStop is still trading far below its peak.

That doesn’t mean SpaceX is comparable as a business. It isn’t. SpaceX is a serious, innovative company with real contracts and revenue streams.

But markets don’t just price businesses. They price expectations.

If too many investors pile in chasing the story, the share price can drift far beyond what the underlying business can justify, at least in the short term.

Red Flag #3: The Musk Effect

There’s no denying the draw of Elon Musk.

Data already shows that retail investors are heavily concentrated in Tesla shares, making it one of the most widely owned stocks among individual investors.

That same enthusiasm could easily spill over into SpaceX.

But concentrated retail interest often leads to volatility. When sentiment is positive, prices can surge quickly. When it shifts, the fall can be just as sharp.

A great story – but not automatically a great investment

If the three red flags above don’t give you pause, consider this: a meaningful portion of SpaceX’s long-term opportunity still depends on government contracts and shifting policy priorities.

Budgets change. Political priorities shift. Timelines slip. Any delays or funding pressure could ripple through the broader investment narrative around SpaceX.

Sure, SpaceX sits at the intersection of one of humanity’s most exciting ambitions and one of the market’s most powerful narratives. And that combination will attract enormous attention when it lists.

But investors should separate two ideas:

• The story: A company helping take humans back to the Moon and beyond
• The investment: A stock priced for near perfection, amid heavy hype and retail demand

Simply put – when SpaceX goes public, it may feel like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. But those are often the moments when discipline matters most. Watch the valuation, question the hype, and remember, even the most exciting journeys don’t guarantee smooth returns.