If you’re over the age of 40, you’ve already experienced at least two paradigm-shifting wealth-creation events. Social media, mobile phones and crypto have all emerged in the last two decades. If you’re generous, you could even include the tail end of the internet revolution. Amazon may have been listed over 20 years ago, but had you purchased the share in 2004 you’d have made 8500+% on your investment.
We are currently going through another such event, which is already larger than anything in living memory: The emergence of AI.
Nvidia, the chipmaker focusing on AI, is currently worth more than the entire German stock market and is almost as large as the UK FTSE. It’s also worth more than combined META (Facebook), Uber, Airbnb, Toyota, VW, Anglo American, BHP, and Tesla.
Unless you have been living under a rock for the last couple of years you’ll have heard about the rise of AI, but, likely, you don’t fully grasp how big an impact this technology will have on the global economy.
As I am about to make some pretty extraordinary claims, I think it’s worth backing them up with evidence. One of the best ways to predict the future is to look at where the people with the most information are placing their bets.
The people who know the most about the future of AI are likely Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, Mark Zuckerburg, and Sundar Pichai.
Sam Altman chooses Open AI over Y Combinator
Altman was head of Y Combinator, the top investor in early-stage startups. This is one of the most sought-after positions in the tech ecosystem. Not only is it very lucrative, but it also gives you prestige and influence.
As his role at OpenAI started taking more of his time, the board of Y combinator told him that could no longer split his time and had to choose one company.
He chose open AI.
Elon Musk secures $6 billion for AI startup and shifts Tesla focus to software
Musk as you know is CEO of Tesla and Space X owns X (formerly Twitter) and is involved in a couple of other companies. More than half of all the satellites were put there by SpaceX and Tesla is worth more than most of the rest of the car industry combined.
He recently raised $6 billion for his AI startup. In addition, he’s switched Tesla’s focus to software and away from newer car models. He’s also claimed we could have Artificial Generated Intelligence (AGI) by next year. I know that Musk is often over-optimistic regarding timelines, but he generally gets the eventual outcome correct.
Satya Nadella drives Microsoft’s historic $100B AI infrastructure investment
Nadella has run Microsoft since 2014 and the stock has gone up about 1000% during this time. He is regarded as one of the best CEOs in the world. Given Microsoft’s stake in OpenAI and other AI investments, he likely knows more about the current state of the technology than anyone else in the world.
Microsoft is investing $100 billion in AI infrastructure over the next two years. This is the largest infrastructure investment by any entity in human history and that includes countries.
Zuckerberg’s Meta boosts AI investment, triples stock in 2 years
Zuckerberg founded Facebook and retains almost total control of the company. He is one the richest people in the world and one of the savviest investors. His purchases of Instagram and WhatsApp, though criticised at the time, have turned out to be bargains.
Meta has pivoted strongly to AI and spends tens of billions a year on the technology. It has already paid dividends, helping Meta stock rise by over 300% over the last two years.
Sundar Pichai spearheads AI transformation at Alphabet, reshaping Google’s strategy
Pichai has run Google since 2015 and Alphabet since 2017. Alphabet owns the lab that discovered transformers and sparked the AI boom.
Despite not pursuing AI strongly initially, Alphabet has recently gone all in on AI. They have launched Isomorphic Labs to monetise their biology AI and are changing their massively profitable search business to focus on AI.
The people with the most money at stake and the best information are betting almost everything on AI.
That is pretty strong evidence that the hype surrounding AI is real.
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