War and the Stock Market: Who Really Wins?

There’s a well-known saying that in war, there are no winners. And while that holds true for the devastation it brings – lost lives, ruined homes, broken infrastructure – the financial world often tells a different story. In times of conflict, some people don’t just survive. They thrive. Defense companies, resource suppliers, and investors who own the right kind of stocks often see their portfolios rise when the world falls into chaos.

So, lets discuss what this means for your investments and how you can build resilience with strategic positioning and investing in safe haven assets.

What actually is a safe haven asset?

When the world goes sideways, investors look for places to park their money that won’t lose value overnight. These are called safe haven assets. They are things that tend to hold or grow in value when markets panic.

The most well-known safe haven is gold. It’s been used as a store of value for thousands of years and still shows up in modern portfolios for one reason. It doesn’t rely on governments, interest rates, or even economic growth. Other precious metals like silver have started gaining attention too, recently jumping over 25 percent in just a few months.

So why gold and silver? Because they’re tangible. They’re scarce. And they exist outside of fiat currencies like the Rand or the Dollar.

Take this example. In 2010, R100 could buy you about 0.38 grams of gold. In 2025, that same R100 buys just 0.084 grams. In other words, the Rand lost over 75 percent of its gold-buying power. But if you had held R100 worth of gold from back then, it would now be worth around R450. That’s the real value of owning a safe haven. It’s not just about holding money. It’s about holding purchasing power.

So, who profits when the world is at war?

Let’s be real. War is big business.

Countries like the US, China, and Russia spend a huge portion of their GDP on defence. That money flows to defence contractors, companies that manufacture weapons, vehicles, equipment, and technology. The more global tension there is, the more governments spend, and the more these companies earn.

And it’s not just the obvious players. Industries tied to key commodities, like energy and metals, often benefit too. When conflict breaks out, supply chains are threatened, and prices jump. If you’re a company sitting on oil or refining copper, that price spike can mean a serious revenue boost.

Take oil for example. During the current Middle East conflict, prices spiked sharply in the days following key attacks. But when a ceasefire was announced, prices dropped just as quickly, falling from around 80 dollars to 66 dollars in a matter of days. That’s how fast the market reacts. And that’s how much these events can move your portfolio, for better or worse.

How do I protect my portfolio when things turn ugly?

This is where strategy matters.

The first thing to remember is you don’t have to invest in war to protect against it. In fact, many investors now avoid defence companies altogether for ethical reasons, especially under ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investing principles. But that doesn’t mean you can’t safeguard your wealth.

Diversification is your friend. Holding a mix of assets, including safe havens like gold, silver, and even certain soft commodities, can help balance out risk when markets get volatile. You can invest in the companies that mine or refine these metals, or you can go direct and buy physical gold or silver. Store it somewhere secure and you’ve got a long-term hedge against inflation, currency risk, and yes, global chaos.

Another option is to look at companies with resilient business models. Firms in healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples often perform well in uncertain times because people still need what they’re selling.

Want to take it a step further? Some investors choose to build or invest in businesses that could remain stable, or even benefit, during global disruption. That might be logistics, cybersecurity, or energy infrastructure. The key is understanding where the world is vulnerable and positioning your capital in companies that solve those vulnerabilities.

Conflict is part of history, and unfortunately, part of the future too. As investors, we can’t stop wars from happening, but we can prepare for their consequences.

Understanding which assets hold up under pressure, where value shifts during global uncertainty, and which industries boom while others bust is how you go from reacting to strategising.

War might bring devastation, but it also brings clarity, and sometimes, opportunity. Just make sure your portfolio knows which side of that line it’s standing on.